Cost overrun against sanctioned estimate
Final expenditure diverges from the approved estimate beyond the tolerance learned for that work category, district and year.
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation · Members of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme
PRAHARI reads the entire MPLADS record — sanctions, releases, bills, work progress and asset evidence — and learns what normal looks like for each category, district and agency. Then it surfaces what does not fit: cost overruns, duplicate sanctions, payments without progress, threshold-splitting, idle funds and vendor capture, each with the evidence that produced the score.
Every figure, name, agency and vendor on this prototype is procedurally generated for demonstration. No real MPLADS record or Member of Parliament is depicted, and nothing here is an assessment of any actual person or body.
01 — The scale
MPLADS moves money in many small sanctions rather than a few large contracts. That shape defeats manual scrutiny: no reviewer can hold the comparison set for a ₹14 lakh anganwadi in one block against the four hundred comparable works that would tell them whether the rate is reasonable.
02 — The blind spot
Fund misuse rarely looks dramatic. It looks like a sanction just under a delegation limit, a bill cluster in the last fortnight of March, a completion photograph from the wrong ward, the same asset sanctioned twice under different descriptions.
03 — The answer
Every record is scored against its own peer cohort — same category, district, quarter, agency size. What remains after that normalisation is worth a human's time, and arrives with its reasoning attached rather than as a black-box verdict.
The detection lattice
Each detector answers a narrow question well. A calibration layer folds their outputs into a single comparable 0–100 score so a road in Barmer and a school block in Murshidabad can sit in the same queue.
Final expenditure diverges from the approved estimate beyond the tolerance learned for that work category, district and year.
Per-unit cost of an asset sits in the upper tail of comparable works in the same district and quarter after size normalisation.
Two or more sanctions describe the same asset at the same location, across MPs, years or implementing agencies.
A cluster of sanctions to one agency lands just under a delegation limit within a short window - the classic threshold-avoidance signature.
Funds released and drawn while the geo-tagged photographic and measurement-book evidence shows no corresponding advance.
A forward estimate of the completion date from progress velocity, monsoon seasonality and agency history flags works that will slip.
One firm captures a disproportionate share of awards under a single MP or agency, adjusting for the size of the local contractor pool.
Abnormal clustering of releases and bills into the closing weeks of the financial year relative to the work's own execution curve.
Money released to the implementing agency but unspent past the scheme's holding window, with no revised work programme on record.
The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures.
The completion photograph's coordinates fall outside the recommended ward or block boundary by more than the GPS error margin.
The recommended work maps to an item barred by the MPLADS guidelines, or to a trust or society outside the eligible list.
From record to redress
Sanctions, releases, bills, measurement books, geo-tagged photographs and utilisation certificates arrive from the MPLADS portal, PFMS and state treasuries.
Records are resolved into a single work identity across agencies and financial years, with vendors, agencies and wards linked into one graph.
Twelve detectors run in parallel — outlier ensembles for money, survival models for time, embeddings for duplication, graph measures for procurement.
Detector outputs are calibrated into one 0–100 risk score, with the feature contributions that produced it attached to every alert.
Alerts route to the right desk with a response clock, evidence pack and audit trail. Every disposal feeds back as a label for the next training round.
Four desks, four views of the same truth
Sees only their own entitlement: what has been recommended, what is stuck, and which recommendations are at risk of being spent badly.
Works the queue. Every open alert lands here first with the evidence attached and a clock running against the response window.
Compares districts against one another, spots agencies whose anomaly rate is out of line, and escalates what the district has not closed.
Watches the scheme as a whole: national risk index, where money is idle, and which anomaly families are growing quarter on quarter.
Explainability is not optional here
A risk score that no one can interrogate will not survive contact with a District Collector, and it should not. Every PRAHARI alert carries the ranked feature contributions that produced it, the peer cohort it was compared against, the underlying records, and a confidence figure. Reviewers can disagree — and their disposal becomes a training label, so precision improves where the scheme actually operates.