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Overview
← Alert queue/ALT-26-0026
CriticalEscalatedD-01 · FinancialOwner: Ministry review desk

Expenditure exceeds sanctioned estimate by 61%

Foot over-bridge ramp · Muzaffarpur, Bihar · sanctioned 16 Jul 2024 · detected 13 Dec 2025 (96 days ago)

Why this was flagged

score 99 / 100

Gradient-boosted residuals evaluated this work against 720 comparable sanctions in Bihar for the same category and financial year. Final expenditure diverges from the approved estimate beyond the tolerance learned for that work category, district and year. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

Composite score
99
Model confidence
0.80
Peer cohort
595 works
Tier
Critical ≥ 82
Feature contribution to the score
  1. 01Expenditure / sanction ratio+25.0
  2. 02Revised estimate count+24.3
  3. 03Category cost residual (district)+24.1
  4. 04Time between revisions+19.1
  5. 05Agency historical overrun rate+6.5

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

Evidence

drawn from the source records
Category median (district)Rs 65.92 L
Revisions on record3
SanctionedRs 80.39 L
ReleasedRs 82.00 L
ExpenditureRs 129.55 L
Physical progress41%

Record trail

  1. 16 Jul 2024Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹80.39 L · Muzaffarpur Jal Nigam Division
  2. 16 Jul 2024First instalment released to the implementing agency₹41.00 L
  3. 13 Dec 2025D-01 fired during the nightly scoring runGradient-boosted residuals · confidence 0.80
  4. 13 Dec 2025Alert routed to Ministry review deskResponse window 7 days
  5. 13 Dec 2025Escalated to the State Nodal AuthorityAwaiting agency reply

The work

MPLADS/BR/2427
Asset
Foot over-bridge ramp
Category
Passenger amenities
Recommended by
T. Mahato · Rajya Sabha
Constituency
Muzaffarpur 3
Implementing agency
Muzaffarpur Jal Nigam Division
Contractor
Aravalli Civil Works
Status
In progress
Beneficiaries
14,272
Money
Sanctioned80.39 L
Released82.00 L
Expenditure1.30 Cr
Unspent with agency0.00 L
Physical progress41%

Detector

D-01

Cost overrun against sanctioned estimate

Final expenditure diverges from the approved estimate beyond the tolerance learned for that work category, district and year.

Gradient-boosted residualsFinancial

Other flags on this work

2

Comparable detections

D-01