Expenditure exceeds sanctioned estimate by 65%

Gradient-boosted residuals evaluated this work against 492 comparable sanctions in Karnataka for the same category and financial year. Final expenditure diverges from the approved estimate beyond the tolerance learned for that work category, district and year. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

1. 01Expenditure / sanction ratio+34.5
2. 02Category cost residual (district)+25.0
3. 03Revised estimate count+21.1
4. 04Time between revisions+12.3
5. 05Agency historical overrun rate+6.0

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

1. 22 Oct 2025Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹14.20 L · Kalaburagi Jal Nigam Division
2. 22 Oct 2025First instalment released to the implementing agency₹7.24 L
3. 05 Jan 2026D-01 fired during the nightly scoring runGradient-boosted residuals · confidence 0.73
4. 05 Jan 2026Alert routed to State Nodal AuthorityResponse window 7 days