Completion projected to slip past the sanctioned window

Survival model + seasonal decomposition evaluated this work against 667 comparable sanctions in Karnataka for the same category and financial year. A forward estimate of the completion date from progress velocity, monsoon seasonality and agency history flags works that will slip. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

1. 01Progress velocity (last 90 days)+32.1
2. 02Monsoon exposure of remaining scope+27.1
3. 03Agency completion-rate history+19.7
4. 04Elapsed vs sanctioned duration+9.1
5. 05Open work count with the agency+5.1

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

1. 22 Oct 2025Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹14.20 L · Kalaburagi Jal Nigam Division
2. 22 Oct 2025First instalment released to the implementing agency₹7.24 L
3. 16 Mar 2026D-06 fired during the nightly scoring runSurvival model + seasonal decomposition · confidence 0.88
4. 16 Mar 2026Alert routed to Internal audit unitResponse window 7 days