Completion projected to slip past the sanctioned window

Survival model + seasonal decomposition evaluated this work against 594 comparable sanctions in Uttar Pradesh for the same category and financial year. A forward estimate of the completion date from progress velocity, monsoon seasonality and agency history flags works that will slip. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

1. 01Agency completion-rate history+21.3
2. 02Progress velocity (last 90 days)+18.8
3. 03Monsoon exposure of remaining scope+16.6
4. 04Elapsed vs sanctioned duration+11.4
5. 05Open work count with the agency+4.9

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

1. 14 Jan 2026Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹10.09 L · Bareilly District Rural Development Agency
2. 14 Jan 2026First instalment released to the implementing agency₹5.14 L
3. 05 Feb 2026D-06 fired during the nightly scoring runSurvival model + seasonal decomposition · confidence 0.96
4. 05 Feb 2026Alert routed to Internal audit unitResponse window 15 days