Completion projected to slip past the sanctioned window

Survival model + seasonal decomposition evaluated this work against 846 comparable sanctions in Kerala for the same category and financial year. A forward estimate of the completion date from progress velocity, monsoon seasonality and agency history flags works that will slip. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

1. 01Progress velocity (last 90 days)+28.5
2. 02Monsoon exposure of remaining scope+27.4
3. 03Elapsed vs sanctioned duration+12.2
4. 04Agency completion-rate history+11.4
5. 05Open work count with the agency+3.6

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

1. 10 Sep 2024Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹76.56 L · Kollam District Rural Development Agency
2. 10 Sep 2024First instalment released to the implementing agency₹39.05 L
3. 20 Mar 2026D-06 fired during the nightly scoring runSurvival model + seasonal decomposition · confidence 0.76
4. 20 Mar 2026Alert routed to District Collector cellResponse window 7 days