Completion projected to slip past the sanctioned window

Survival model + seasonal decomposition evaluated this work against 392 comparable sanctions in Maharashtra for the same category and financial year. A forward estimate of the completion date from progress velocity, monsoon seasonality and agency history flags works that will slip. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

1. 01Progress velocity (last 90 days)+31.2
2. 02Monsoon exposure of remaining scope+25.5
3. 03Agency completion-rate history+16.5
4. 04Elapsed vs sanctioned duration+11.3
5. 05Open work count with the agency+7.5

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

1. 08 Jan 2024Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹48.92 L · Nashik Zilla Parishad Works Division
2. 08 Jan 2024First instalment released to the implementing agency₹22.84 L
3. 10 Jan 2026D-06 fired during the nightly scoring runSurvival model + seasonal decomposition · confidence 0.77
4. 10 Jan 2026Alert routed to State Nodal AuthorityResponse window 7 days
5. 10 Jan 2026Escalated to the State Nodal AuthorityAwaiting agency reply