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Overview
← Alert queue/ALT-26-0046
WatchOpenD-10 · FinancialOwner: State Nodal Authority

Leading-digit distribution of bills departs from Benford expectation

Field channel lining · Mysuru, Karnataka · sanctioned 16 Sep 2025 · detected 07 Jan 2026 (62 days ago)

Why this was flagged

score 50 / 100

Benford chi-square test evaluated this work against 728 comparable sanctions in Karnataka for the same category and financial year. The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

Composite score
50
Model confidence
0.77
Peer cohort
268 works
Tier
Watch ≥ 45
Feature contribution to the score
  1. 01Benford chi-square statistic+15.4
  2. 02Leading-digit 1 deficit+14.3
  3. 03Round-figure bill share+11.8
  4. 04Split-bill proximity+4.3
  5. 05Bill count in the sample+4.2

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

Evidence

drawn from the source records
Chi-square statistic28.6
Bills in sample206
SanctionedRs 11.60 L
ReleasedRs 7.11 L
ExpenditureRs 6.09 L
Physical progress100%

Record trail

  1. 16 Sep 2025Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹11.60 L · Mysuru District Rural Development Agency
  2. 16 Sep 2025First instalment released to the implementing agency₹3.56 L
  3. 07 Jan 2026D-10 fired during the nightly scoring runBenford chi-square test · confidence 0.77
  4. 07 Jan 2026Alert routed to State Nodal AuthorityResponse window 30 days

The work

MPLADS/KA/2451
Asset
Field channel lining
Category
Minor irrigation
Recommended by
L. Ahirwar · Lok Sabha
Constituency
Mysuru 2
Implementing agency
Mysuru District Rural Development Agency
Contractor
Konark Buildcon
Status
Completed
Beneficiaries
10,787
Money
Sanctioned11.60 L
Released7.11 L
Expenditure6.09 L
Unspent with agency1.02 L
Physical progress100%

Detector

D-10

First-digit anomaly in bill values

The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures.

Benford chi-square testFinancial

Comparable detections

D-10