Leading-digit distribution of bills departs from Benford expectation
Field channel lining · Mysuru, Karnataka · sanctioned 16 Sep 2025 · detected 07 Jan 2026 (62 days ago)
Why this was flagged
Benford chi-square test evaluated this work against 728 comparable sanctions in Karnataka for the same category and financial year. The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.
- 01Benford chi-square statistic+15.4
- 02Leading-digit 1 deficit+14.3
- 03Round-figure bill share+11.8
- 04Split-bill proximity+4.3
- 05Bill count in the sample+4.2
Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.
Evidence
| Chi-square statistic | 28.6 |
| Bills in sample | 206 |
| Sanctioned | Rs 11.60 L |
| Released | Rs 7.11 L |
| Expenditure | Rs 6.09 L |
| Physical progress | 100% |
Record trail
- 16 Sep 2025Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹11.60 L · Mysuru District Rural Development Agency
- 16 Sep 2025First instalment released to the implementing agency₹3.56 L
- 07 Jan 2026D-10 fired during the nightly scoring runBenford chi-square test · confidence 0.77
- 07 Jan 2026Alert routed to State Nodal AuthorityResponse window 30 days
The work
Detector
First-digit anomaly in bill values
The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures.