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Overview
← Alert queue/ALT-26-0113
HighUnder reviewD-10 · FinancialOwner: District Collector cell

Leading-digit distribution of bills departs from Benford expectation

Station forecourt paving · Bardhaman, West Bengal · sanctioned 02 Oct 2025 · detected 15 Feb 2026 (42 days ago)

Why this was flagged

score 69 / 100

Benford chi-square test evaluated this work against 855 comparable sanctions in West Bengal for the same category and financial year. The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

Composite score
69
Model confidence
0.81
Peer cohort
132 works
Tier
High ≥ 66
Feature contribution to the score
  1. 01Benford chi-square statistic+24.0
  2. 02Round-figure bill share+16.5
  3. 03Leading-digit 1 deficit+12.7
  4. 04Bill count in the sample+10.7
  5. 05Split-bill proximity+5.1

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

Evidence

drawn from the source records
Chi-square statistic44.6
Bills in sample191
SanctionedRs 142.97 L
ReleasedRs 134.57 L
ExpenditureRs 96.89 L
Physical progress9%

Record trail

  1. 02 Oct 2025Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹1.43 Cr · Bardhaman District Rural Development Agency
  2. 02 Oct 2025First instalment released to the implementing agency₹67.28 L
  3. 15 Feb 2026D-10 fired during the nightly scoring runBenford chi-square test · confidence 0.81
  4. 15 Feb 2026Alert routed to District Collector cellResponse window 15 days

The work

MPLADS/WB/2529
Asset
Station forecourt paving
Category
Passenger amenities
Recommended by
D. Kulkarni · Rajya Sabha
Constituency
Bardhaman 3
Implementing agency
Bardhaman District Rural Development Agency
Contractor
Saptagiri Engineers
Status
Sanctioned
Beneficiaries
7,311
Money
Sanctioned1.43 Cr
Released1.35 Cr
Expenditure96.89 L
Unspent with agency37.68 L
Physical progress9%

Detector

D-10

First-digit anomaly in bill values

The distribution of leading digits across an agency's invoices departs from the Benford expectation, a marker for manufactured figures.

Benford chi-square testFinancial

Other flags on this work

2

Comparable detections

D-10