Expenditure exceeds sanctioned estimate by -95%

Gradient-boosted residuals evaluated this work against 509 comparable sanctions in Gujarat for the same category and financial year. Final expenditure diverges from the approved estimate beyond the tolerance learned for that work category, district and year. The residual for this record falls outside the learned tolerance, and the contribution breakdown below isolates which measured features carried the score.

1. 01Expenditure / sanction ratio+24.4
2. 02Category cost residual (district)+18.4
3. 03Revised estimate count+12.8
4. 04Time between revisions+7.9
5. 05Agency historical overrun rate+4.5

Contributions are additive against the cohort baseline; they sum to the composite score and are recomputed whenever the underlying record changes.

1. 16 Jun 2024Work sanctioned by the District Authority₹48.83 L · Bhavnagar Panchayat Samiti
2. 16 Jun 2024First instalment released to the implementing agency₹24.91 L
3. 08 Dec 2025D-01 fired during the nightly scoring runGradient-boosted residuals · confidence 0.88
4. 08 Dec 2025Alert routed to District Collector cellResponse window 15 days